A $700 million contract sounds like a fairly simple number until you ask when the money arrives. Shohei Ohtani signed his Dodgers deal in December 2023, with most of the salary deferred. If you're trying to understand the deal, those dates tell you more than dividing the headline total by ten.

Shohei Ohtani holding a bat while wearing a red Angels cap and jersey
Archival Angels photograph, predating the Dodgers contract discussed here. Source: Wikimedia Commons

When does he get paid?

The St. Louis Fed's October 2024 explanation gives the schedule: $2 million a year from 2024 through 2033, then $68 million a year from 2034 through 2043. The later payments carry no interest. That's $20 million in the first decade and $680 million in the next. Add them together and you reach the familiar $700 million.

Close view of a Dodgers jersey with a tattooed arm beside it
Illustrative Dodgers jersey; not identified as Ohtani's jersey. Source: Dez Hester/Unsplash

Where the $70 million average comes from

You can divide $700 million by the ten-year contract and get $70 million a year. Just keep the schedule beside that calculation: neither decade pays that annual amount. Write down how much arrives in each period before deciding what an average means for your own cash flow.

Historical black-and-white photograph of Babe Ruth in a Red Sox uniform
Historical baseball photograph, used as an illustration. Source: Wikimedia Commons

What would future money be worth today?

That's the question a present-value calculation tries to answer. You choose a discount rate and translate future payments into an amount at a particular date. Change the rate or payment dates and the answer can change too. The resulting figure is a calculation, with its own purpose, rather than an extra payment.

JPX electronic market board showing rows of financial data
Illustrative exchange display; not evidence of a contract-related price change. Source: Getty Images

Work through $250 first

Here's a smaller version. Let $250 earn a hypothetical 4% for one year, without fees or taxes, and you'll have $260. Reverse the calculation: $260 divided by 1.04 is $250. That's the present value of $260 due a year from now at that rate. This isn't a promised return.

Shohei Ohtani with Angels personnel holding trophies on a baseball field
Archival Angels photograph; not a Dodgers signing ceremony. Source: Getty Images

What inflation can change

A fixed dollar payment stays the same size even if prices rise while you're waiting for it. In that situation, it buys less. Inflation describes a general increase in prices over time. You'd need more assumptions to say what prices will look like in 2034, or what Ohtani himself will buy with those later payments.

Shohei Ohtani swinging a bat in a red Angels number 17 jersey
Archival Angels game photograph, predating the Dodgers contract. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Baseball has a separate calculation

The league needs a way to count deferred pay for its Competitive Balance Tax. The 2022–2026 Basic Agreement specifies when to use present value and when to use stated value. Keep that payroll accounting question separate from the payment schedule. It also won't tell you the player's take-home income; that asks a different question again.

Aerial view of Dodger Stadium and its seating
Illustrative stadium photograph; not evidence of a measured economic impact. Source: Alessandro Porri/Unsplash

The club still has to fund the promise

Article XVI permits deferred compensation without limiting its amount or its share of total compensation. It also sets funding requirements for clubs. So the amount paid directly to a player during an early season isn't the whole picture of the team's obligations. Setting money aside to fund later pay and actually paying the player are separate steps.

JPX flags outside a Tokyo Stock Exchange building
Illustrative exchange building; not evidence of a particular market move. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Look beyond the exchange-board photo

A Japanese stock-exchange photograph can illustrate a market story. It can't show you how a particular sponsor's shares performed after the signing. For that, you need the company, trading dates, prices and a suitable comparison. If the shares rose during that period, you'd still need evidence before attributing the rise to Ohtani's contract.

Close view of Shohei Ohtani in a red Angels cap and jersey
Archival Angels portrait, predating the Dodgers contract. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Check what an economic estimate measures

A regional economic forecast might concern spending across an area over a specified period. Read its date, currency and assumptions before using the number. An estimate of economic activity, a share-price return and an athlete's salary measure different things. A forecast also needs to stay labeled as a forecast until there is evidence of what actually happened.

Shohei Ohtani pitching as a batter and catcher appear in the foreground
Archival Angels pitching photograph, predating the Dodgers contract. Source: Wikimedia Commons

An endorsement leaves plenty to check

The SEC's celebrity-endorsement alert advises against investing solely because a famous person promotes something. An athlete's consumer advertisement doesn't tell you if an investment suits you. The alert also says celebrities can be linked to promotions without their consent. Verify the connection before assuming the person endorsed the opportunity.

Shohei Ohtani swinging in a gray Angels uniform with a catcher behind him
Archival Angels batting photograph, predating the Dodgers contract. Source: Getty Images

Read about the business itself

The SEC points investors toward company finances and prospects, the seller's background, and costs and risks. If your question is about compensation instead, start with the promised amounts, the dates you'll receive them and the rules governing the promise.

Shohei Ohtani smiling in a red Angels cap
Archival Angels portrait, predating the Dodgers contract. Source: Getty Images
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